SMIC 2027: why it is still too early to calculate January’s increase
23 September 2026 · 4 min reading time
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The first salary forecasts for 2027 are emerging, but they do not reveal how much France’s minimum wage will rise. Following the January and June 2026 adjustments, several figures are still needed to calculate the next January increase. The presidential election could then open up debate over an additional rise.
The June increase changes the starting point
To understand what may happen in January, we need to look back at the most recent increase. In June 2026, France’s minimum wage, known as the SMIC, rose after inflation crossed the threshold triggering an automatic adjustment.
Part of the rise in prices has therefore already been reflected in minimum wage rates. The January calculation will need to account for this: applying the full annual inflation rate to the current amount would count part of that change twice.
This interim adjustment explains why an annual inflation rate alone cannot predict the next increase. Nor does it, on its own, mean that the January rise will be small.
Employees can find the current hourly and monthly rates in our article on the minimum wage currently in force.
Employers’ salary forecasts do not predict the minimum wage increase
The Alixio survey released in September provides an indication of pay plans for next year. It points to an average planned increase of 2.3% in 2027 among the large companies surveyed.
This figure reflects employers’ intentions. It does not measure changes in the minimum wage, which is reviewed using indicators set out in law. Nor does it guarantee the same pay rise for every employee.
The salary increase forecasts for 2027 help put employers’ planned budgets into perspective. For someone earning the minimum wage, however, the decisive figure will be the rate ultimately adopted for the statutory adjustment.
Which figures are still needed to calculate the increase?
Two factors determine the annual adjustment: inflation experienced by the lowest-income 20% of households, and half the increase in the purchasing power of the basic hourly wage for blue-collar and clerical workers. The French Service Public website explains the rules governing minimum wage increases.
The latest price and wage figures are therefore still needed. Publications from Insee, France’s national statistics institute, and Dares, the labour ministry’s statistics department, will add to the available data over the autumn.
The distinction between observed data and forecasts matters here. A company can announce its planned pay budget for 2027; the minimum wage calculation, by contrast, uses changes that have already been measured. Likewise, inflation across all households does not necessarily match inflation for the group used in this calculation.
Food, energy and services will contribute to the result according to their weighting in the index. A rise in fuel prices alone will therefore not determine the percentage increase applied in January.
The announcement expected in December will set the January rate
The minimum wage applicable from 1 January 2027 is expected to be announced in December. Until then, any figure obtained by applying an assumed increase to the current rate remains a simulation, even if the arithmetic is accurate to the nearest cent.
The net amount requires further care. The statutory minimum is set as a gross figure; the amount an employee receives then depends on the applicable deductions and their circumstances. Giving a precise net figure for January now would suggest a level of certainty that the available data cannot yet support.
When the official announcement is made, the key details will be the gross hourly rate, its effective date and any additional increase granted by the government.
The presidential election could reopen the debate over an additional increase
The January adjustment will take place before the presidential election. Decisions made after the vote could nevertheless change the minimum wage during the year.
The government can grant an additional discretionary increase, known in France as a “coup de pouce”, on top of the statutory adjustment. Any such decision should be distinguished from campaign pledges: a target amount for the end of a presidential term does not imply an increase within the first few months.
A further increase could also occur without an additional political decision if the reference price index rises by at least 2% from the level used when the minimum wage was last set. The amount announced in December will therefore establish the minimum wage for January, without fixing its level for the whole of 2027.
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